The ICC T20 World Cup 2022 is going in full flow in Australia. After the conclusion of the Qualifiers round, the super-12 stage kicked off, and each game has been truly fascinating to watch.
A couple of upsets and a handful of washouts have spiced up the qualification scenario. Mathematically, 11 out of the 12 teams can still qualify for the semi-finals, and any of these 11 teams can get eliminated.
So, these teams have everything to play for, as each team is in the race to finish in the top 4. But which teams are going to do that? Which 4 will qualify, and which 7 will return home?
To discover, read this blog till the end.
Qualification Scenario in Group 1
England and Australia were the prime contenders to qualify from Group 1. But Australia’s loss to New Zealand in their first game and Ireland’s upset win over England left the group wide open for everyone.
Group 1 Points Table
Here’s how the teams stand in group 1 at the moment:
| TEAMS | Matches | Wins | Losses | Washouts | Points | NRR |
| New Zealand | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | +3.850 |
| England | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +0.239 |
| Ireland | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1.170 |
| Australia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1.555 |
| Afghanistan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -0.620 |
| Sri Lanka | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -0.890 |
Based on the current standings and the games to be played, let’s get a detailed insight into the qualification possibilities for each team in Group 1.
1) New Zealand
New Zealand are currently on top of the points table of Group 1 and their run rate of +3.850 is the best in the tournament. Their remaining two matches are against England and Ireland.
Here’s the comprehensive qualification scenario for New Zealand:
- If they win the remaining two games, they will book their ticket for the semis without any ifs and buts
- If they win one and lose one, and Australia & England win their last two games, all 3 teams will finish on 7 points. Due to their massive run rate, NZ will still very likely get into the final 4.
- The only strong possibility of New Zealand getting eliminated from the super-12 stages emerges if they lose both their remaining matches. Then, if England and Australia clinch their final 2 matches, New Zealand will be eliminated.
2) England
A loss to Ireland and a washout against Australia have dented England’s progress in the ongoing T20 World Cup. They are yet to play two more matches in the super 12 round – against New Zealand and Sri Lanka.
Let’s see what are the possible roads to the semi-finals for the English team:
- If England wins both their remaining matches and Australia loses one of their last two games, England will cruise to the next stage.
- If both England and Australia win their remaining contests, the team with the better run rate will go through. So, England will need to make sure to extend their lead over Australia in the run rate perspective.
- If they lose one or two of their remaining clashes, they will need Australia to lose the same number of matches. Also, they will need to avoid a defeat with a heavy margin.
3) Ireland
The victory against England must have ignited hopes in the Irish camp. Here’s how they can turn their hopes of reaching the semi-final into reality:
- Win the remaining matches against Australia and New Zealand and hope for England to lose one. If England win both their games, Ireland will need to win these matches with heavy margins.
- If they lose one more game, they will pray for either England or Australia to lose at least one game and have a run rate worse than theirs.
- If Ireland lose both their next matches, their World Cup 2022 journey will end.
4) Australia
While staying level on points with England &Ireland and having their last 2 matches against Afghanistan and Ireland, the Aussies have got a fair chance to make it to the next stages.
Let’s see how they can make it happen:
- The first target for them is to win both of their upcoming games. If it happens and England lose one of their upcoming two games, Australia will go through.
- If England win both, the run rate will come into play. Currently, England (+0.239) have a much better run rate as compared to Australia (-1.555). So, the Aussies must focus on big wins against two weaker teams.
- If Australia win one more game but lose one also, they will pray for England to also lose at least one, and that too with a massive margin.
- If Australians lose both of their remaining games, they will be eliminated from this World Cup.
5) Afghanistan
The Afghan team has only 2 points after 3 matches and need the following scenarios to qualify:
- If they claim wins in their next 2 contests (against Australia and Sri Lanka), then they will want New Zealand to beat Ireland and England. In this way, they will go through to the semis.
- But, if they lose one more game, they will lose the semi-finals race.
6) Sri Lanka
They are in a similar situation to Afghanistan, and here’s how they can qaulify:
- Beat Afghanistan & England and hope for Australia and Ireland to lose at least one game.
- Like Afghanistan, a loss in the last 2 matches will end their semi-final hopes.
Qualification Scenario in Group 2
A washout and an upset in Group 2 have made this group highly interesting as well. Let’s see where the 6 teams stand in this group:
Group 1 Points Table
| TEAMS | Matches | Wins | Losses | Washouts | Points | NRR |
| South Africa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | +2.772 |
| India | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +0.844 |
| Bangladesh | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -1.533 |
| Zimbabwe | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -0.050 |
| Pakistan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +0.765 |
| Netherlands | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1.948 |
Now, let’s analyse different ifs and buts regarding the qualification scenarios for all the teams.
1) South Africa
South Africans were smashing their way to victory against Zimbabwe in their T20 World Cup opener. But, the rain forced them to share the points with the Zimbabweans. However, their last-over victory against India has helped them get to a solid position in the group.
To qualify for the semi-finals, they need to:
- Win both their matches against Pakistan and Netherlands. If they do that, there will be no need to look for the results of the other matches.
- Win one of the next two games and hope Zimbabwe will lose one of their last two.
- Avoid losing both of their next two games. If it happens, they should pray for India to lose both their matches.
2) India
India are currently the favourites to finish 2nd in the group. Let’s see how they can make sure to get amongst the top 4 teams:
- Win two out of two to finish the group stage, and they will qualify directly.
- If they lose one, expect Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Zimbabwe to do the same. Also, keep their run rate higher than these 3 teams.
- Losing both matches will put India out of the tournament.
3) Bangladesh
Bangladesh are currently standing 3rd, but their NRR is the 2nd worst in the group. Here’s how they can make it to the semis:
- Winning both the remaining matches against India and Pakistan will see them through to the top 4.
- If they manage one win, they will need Zimbabwe, Pakistan, and India to lose at least one and also stay ahead of India in the run rate’s table.
- If they lose two, they will go home.
4) Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe’s chances of entering the semi-finals of a World Cup for the first time were dented by a defeat against Bangladesh. But they can still make it. Here’s how:
- Beat India and Netherlands and wish for Bangladesh to lose at least one game or have a lower run rate than them.
- Win one game and expect two of the three teams – India, South Africa, and Bangladesh to lose both. Also, Pakistan should lose at least one of the remaining two.
- Two losses will mean their elimination.
5) Pakistan
Despite being one of the favourites in the group, Pakistan find themselves 2nd last on the points table – thanks to an upset by Zimbabwe. To make the cut for the semi-finals, they need more than a miracle now.
Here’s what they will strive and pray for:
- Firstly, they have to end on the winning side against South Africa and Netherlands.
- Then, pray for two of India, Bangladesh or South Africa to lose both of theirs.
- If two of the above-mentioned three teams win at least one, then Pakistan has to finish with a better run rate than India or Bangladesh.
- If India wins their remaining two matches and South Africa wins against the Netherlands, Pakistani fans will have no more hopes. The same will be the case if Zimbabwe wins their last two games combined with any of the previous two conditions happening.
- In short, Pakistan can afford only one team (apart from themselves) to finish at 6 points. Also, they need to keep their run rate higher than that team as well.
6) Netherlands
The Dutch team is effectively out of the ICC T20 World Cup 2022. Winning the next 2 games will make them close at 4 points, and the winner of India vs Bangladesh match will finish at 6 points at least. South Africa already have 5 points, so the Netherlands can’t go past them either.
Therefore, the semi-final hopes have ended for the Netherlands.
Our Predictions
Regarding group 1, England and Australia will likely clinch their remaining two games, and New Zealand will beat Ireland. Consequently, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, and Ireland will be eliminated, and England or Australia will qualify based on the NRR. England are well ahead in that aspect, so they are likelier to edge ahead.
In group 2, we expect India to win their final 2 matches and South Africa to beat the Netherlands. It will mean an elimination for the other 4 teams in the group.
Final Verdict: So, our predicted semi-finalists for the ICC T20 World Cup 2022 are New Zealand, England, South Africa, and India. New Zealand and South Africa will top the points table in their group.
The two semi-finals will be; New Zealand vs India and South Africa vs England.
